NBA Atlantic Division Off-Season Grades

Basketball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlantic Division had only one team finish with a winning record last season (Celtics), and although some members have improved since then, it looks like it will be pretty weak once again. Let's take a look at how each has fared in the attempt to upgrade their rosters.

CELTICS: Boston kept its "Big Four" intact by re-signing free agents Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. The Celtics did lose a valuable bench player to free agency with Tony Allen signing with the Grizzlies. Another key sub may not return, as the C's await Rasheed Wallace's decision on whether he'll remain retired. Boston signed free agent Jermaine O'Neal to bolster its front line, which will help with Kendrick Perkins being sidelined to at least December as he recovers from major knee surgery. O'Neal is more of an offensive threat than Perkins, but the Celts will miss his physical presence. In the draft, the Boston picked up guard Avery Bradley and power forward Luke Harangody. Even though Harangody was a second round pick, he may be more ready to step in and contribute this season following a very impressive showing in the summer league.

KNICKS: Team president Donnie Walsh stripped his roster down to almost nothing over the last two years to get under the salary cap, in hopes of striking free agent gold this summer. What he ended up with was some nice bronze and two straight horrible seasons. Free agent Amar'e Stoudemire was glad to come to New York for a guaranteed $100 million dollars. The only problem was none of his fellow big-ticket free agents wanted to do the same. Point guard Raymond Felton, also a free agent, did opt to join Stoudemire in the Big Apple, signing a three-year contract. Walsh did manage to get some useful pieces for free agent David Lee, as he sent him to the Warriors in a sign-and-trade for Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azubuike, and Ronny Turiaf. The Knicks had two second-round draft picks, and came away with small forward Landry Fields and guard Andy Rautins. Fields showed some promise in the summer league, while Rautins may be even a worse pick than Jordan Hill was last season. The end result for the Knicks was they got rid of eventual All-Star Zach Randolph and sixth-man-of- the-year winner Jamal Crawford for Stoudemire and Felton. Not much of a trade- off for two horrible seasons, if you ask me.

NETS: New Jersey had the third overall pick in the draft and selected power forward Derrick Favors. He has a wealth of potential and tremendous athleticism, but it's unlikely he'll have a big impact in his first season. The Nets selected Damion James with the second of their two first-round picks. James played very well in the summer league and may be more polished at this point than Favors. The Nets also picked up some serviceable pieces in the free agent market, signing point guard Jordan Farmar, small forward Travis Outlaw, and shooting guard Anthony Morrow. Farmar gives the Nets a solid backup for Devin Harris, while Outlaw and Morrow can both fill it up from the outside.

Grade: B

76ERS: The big addition was Evan Turner, the second overall pick in the draft. He struggled in the summer league by his own admission, and you wonder how effective he'll be having to play off the ball in the NBA. The Sixers made one trade of note, sending the highly outsized contract of center Samuel Dalembert to the Kings for center Spencer Hawes and small forward Andres Nocioni. Aside from dumping a bad contract, Philly gets a big man in Hawes that is seven years younger than Dalembert. However, the overall effect of the trade as far as improving the team is likely to be minimal at best.

Grade: C

RAPTORS: Even though Toronto lost its All-Star power forward Chris Bosh to the Heat via free agency, it actually wasn't a disastrous off-season for the Raptors. Toronto got another lefty power forward in the draft's first round, North Carolina's Ed Davis. He's still very raw and will take time to develop, but the Raptors potentially got themselves a good replacement for Bosh with the 13th overall pick. The Raptors made two free agent signings of their own, inking small forward Linas Kleiza to a very reasonable four-year, $18.4 million dollar deal, and a somewhat unreasonable five-year, $34 million dollar contract to power forward Amir Johnson Kleiza played overseas last year, but was very productive previously backing up Carmelo Anthony in Denver. Johnson earned his hefty payday by averaging 6.2 ppg in nearly 18 minutes per game last season for the Raptors. He does do some good work off the boards and provide a shot- blocking presence, but has always had trouble staying on the floor due to foul problems. Toronto also traded the disgruntled and disappointing Hedo Turkoglu to the Suns for Leandro Barbosa. The Raptors had to be thrilled getting a quality player like Barbosa in exchange for a player who didn't want to be there and is four years older.

Grade: C+

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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